Who’s been right on FX

Median absolute error in basis points for every sell-side forecaster, by G10 pair, scored against the Street’s average. Lower is better. Hover any cell for the directional hit rate and sample size. Updated nightly.

The Street420 640 342 349 325 181 321 953 913avg bps

FirmEUR/USD JPY/USD GBP/USD CHF/USD AUD/USD CAD/USD NZD/USD NOK/USD SEK/USDOverall bpsTD Securities —————73 ———73UOB 48 31 193 —312 ————146Crédit Agricole 87 —370 —139 146 ———186Rabobank 87 573 222 625 0 73 ———263Société Générale 87 697 148 0 694 73 169 427 355295Danske Bank 261 ———417 ————339CIBC 609 325 ———146 ———360Mizuho 174 263 296 0 972 219 339 521 558371J.P. Morgan 435 171 74 0 556 365 0 1071 1036412Citi 261 387 815 375 694 219 508 237 254417UBS 435 697 0 250 139 219 0 1071 1036427HSBC 261 1008 0 250 278 73 339 853 863436Goldman Sachs 870 77 74 500 278 146 169 995 964453Standard Chartered 435 573 370 750 417 219 339 900 152462ANZ 87 —————847 ——467BNP Paribas 522 821 0 250 556 146 169 853 914470RBC Capital Markets 609 883 222 125 278 219 508 730 1036512Barclays 522 759 444 250 417 73 0 1090 1066513MUFG 783 77 370 500 278 219 169 1090 1168517ING 435 325 0 375 208 292 339 1706 1036524Scotiabank 609 1318 148 —417 146 ———527Bank of America 522 573 481 500 139 146 169 1137 1218543Nomura 435 1318 444 250 0 219 508 900 1269594Commerzbank 609 1194 385 375 139 146 678 1147 1015632Morgan Stanley 87 1318 889 625 139 219 339 1090 1117647Deutsche Bank 870 697 519 625 0 365 508 1327 1371698Nordea 783 ————————783Wells Fargo 435 —1407 ——————921

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