Bank forecasts for USD/TRY at year-end December 2026 cluster around a median of 50.50, with a mean of 50.22 across 17 desks. Both measures point to expectations of a materially weaker lira against the dollar than current levels, consistent with the pair's established one-way trend.
The 17 forecasts span from 43.50 at the most TRY-bullish end to 56.30 at the most TRY-bearish end, with a population standard deviation of 2.96. That spread is wide in absolute terms but the closeness of the mean and median suggests broad directional agreement on lira depreciation, with disagreement mostly about pace. You can review the full USD/TRY bank consensus on the canonical pair page.
Because a higher USD/TRY reading means a stronger dollar and a weaker lira, a print toward the upper bound of 56.30 would signal faster lira weakness, while a move toward the lower bound of 43.50 would imply relative lira resilience. The median of 50.50 sits between these extremes and represents the central expectation.
With dispersion at 2.96 around a mean of 50.22, the distribution of desk views is tight enough to treat the 50.50 median as a meaningful reference point for December 2026 rather than a placeholder amid disagreement.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the USD/TRY forecast for the end of 2026?
The bank consensus median for USD/TRY at December 2026 is 50.50, with a mean of 50.22.
What is the range of USD/TRY forecasts for 2026?
Forecasts span from 43.50 at the most TRY-bullish end to 56.30 at the most TRY-bearish end, across 17 banks.
How much do the bank forecasts disagree?
The population standard deviation of the 17 targets is 2.96, and the mean of 50.22 sits close to the median of 50.50.
Read next
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 49.76, Spread 12.8 — Week of Oct 26, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 49.76, 1.46% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion splitting ING from UBS.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 49.74, Week of October 25, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 49.74, just 1.51% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, yet a 12.8-point dispersion signals deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 49.74, Spread 12.8 — Week of Oct 24, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 49.74, 1.51% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion exposing deep disagreement on TCMB's path.
Share