Dutch economy looks set to beat expectations in the third quarter
The Dutch economy appears poised for stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter of 2026, driven by resilient export performance and improving consumer spending. Per the full note from ING, the initial data suggests GDP growth may surprise on the upside, bolstered by solid trade balance contributions and continued strength in industrial production. With monthly indicators showing consistent improvement and consumer confidence rising, the macro outlook seems favorable. This is relevant amid a backdrop of no immediate market-moving events, allowing the market to focus solely on these emerging growth signals.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the Dutch economy is set to outperform expectations in Q3 2026, led by robust export growth and a revival in consumer spending. Per the full note from ING, preliminary data indicates that GDP growth could exceed expectations as the trade balance improves.
Detailed metrics show significant strength in goods exports, with further enhancement suggested from September's survey data on export orders. The resilience of consumer spending complements this narrative, as households are experiencing rising purchasing power amid improving wage growth outpacing inflation.
Where it sits in our coverage
Based on our internal analysis, we have a consensus target for EUR/USD at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Key firms backing this view include: - jpmorgan: Targeting 1.10 for March 2026 - bofa: Targeting lower at 1.04 for March 2026
The desk's projection aligns closely with jpmorgan, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the currency pair driven by Dutch economic signals. This positioning suggests a bullish sentiment consistent with favorable labor market dynamics and trade developments described in the ING note.
How other firms see it
Market views are split: jpmorgan stands aligned with the desk's optimistic stance, highlighting positive momentum in the eurozone, while bofa presents a contrary position, anticipating headwinds that might limit currency strength.
The trajectory of EUR/USD is particularly relevant, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming monetary policy discussions, as upward pressure from Dutch growth could reinforce the euro relative to USD in the near term.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The Dutch economy is projected to exceed growth expectations in Q3 2026.
- 02Stronger export growth and improved consumer spending are key drivers.
- 03No significant events are scheduled, allowing focus on economic data.
- 04Consensus target for EUR/USD is set at 1.075, with a bullish outlook.
Market implications
Traders should monitor EUR/USD movement closely, particularly as key levels approach. If growth metrics continue to support the bullish narrative, a rise towards 1.10 could be realized.
Risks to this view
The primary risk to this bullish outlook involves a potential downturn in consumer sentiment or unexpected volatility in the trade figures leading to weaker GDP growth than projected. Additionally, any geopolitical tensions affecting trade could impact growth expectations.
Older quick take Quick take Published 15:32 The Netherlands Dutch economy looks set to beat expectations in the third quarter While the Dutch economy already showed considerable resilience in the first half of 2026, monthly data suggest that we might be in for yet another positive surprise, as hard production and expenditure figures as well as softer survey indicators point to strong Dutch GDP growth in the third quarter We think third-quarter GDP growth can surprise to the upside For most indicators, especially the most reliable hard data, only two months of data are available so far for the third quarter. While these data already give positive signals, survey data generally suggest further improvement in the third and final month of the quarter, September. Goods export growth in particular looks strong, following an already strong second quarter.
This, combined with muted import growth, suggests that the trade balance may contribute significantly to GDP growth in the third quarter. While monthly trade figures tend to be very volatile, and we cannot exclude the possibility of disappointment at the end of the quarter, survey data for September on the export order position of manufacturing seem to confirm the upward trend in exports. Industrial production shows continued strong output in the machinery industry, while many other (heavy) manufacturing sub-sectors are still suffering from weak (energy) price competitiveness.
Growth of consumption by households also looks like another positive growth driver for the third quarter. While the monthly consumption growth is more moderate than export growth and seasonal adjustment can sometimes give a misleading signal about short-term developments, it seems consumers are set to have spent more in the third quarter. Consumer confidence, while still at a subdued level, improved in each of the three months of 3Q26.
Households are still benefitting from gains in purchasing power: wages are still outpacing inflation, and many pensioners have received a boost to their income that was possible due to the transition to the new defined-contribution system. Meanwhile, public consumption remains on a slowly expanding path, with an ageing population requiring an expanding healthcare sector, and the minority government's austerity measures have yet to kick in. The direction of investment is less clear for the third quarter, with mixed figures, suggesting that either a drop or an expansion is possible.
While low utilisation rates in heavy industries provide little incentive to expand capacity, other businesses are still struggling to execute their investment plans, as the Netherlands still struggles with electricity grid congestion, a lack of skilled personnel who can install new equipment, limited nitrogen-emission permitting capacity and other supply-side issues. We are expecting a minor contraction in inventories and hardly any contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. On the one hand, the increasing share of businesses that consider their inventories of final products to be too large (versus the share that considers them too small) suggests a winding down of inventories.
At the same time, purchase orders (for inputs) have also increased. This mixed picture suggests that overall changes to inventories are likely to be minor and not very dissimilar to the changes in the second quarter. To conclude, while we initially pencilled in 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth for the Dutch economy in 3Q26, it now looks possible that the GDP growth figure that Statistics Netherlands (CBS) will publish on 30 October will come in even stronger.
Barring unforeseen disappointment in actual figures for September, the range of 0.8% to 1.1% quarterly GDP growth is now also within the realm of realistic possibilities. Maybe that is a bit too much to expect, as a strong catch-up in the import content of expenditures cannot be ruled out either for the final month of the quarter, but it is quite clear that the data for the Netherlands have been rather positive. The Netherlands Investment Imports GDP Exports Consumption Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Marcel Klok Senior Economist, Netherlands Older quick take
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