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USD/KRW sits at 1487.46 as of the week of July 18, 2026 — 7.79% above the cross-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks surveyed price a material won recovery by year-end, though a 180-point spread between the most and least aggressive targets signals genuine disagreement about the pace and durability of any KRW rebound.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 18, 2026): 1487.46
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −7.79% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
| RBC | 1430.0 | bearish |
Why does USD/KRW trade so far above the Dec-26 consensus?
The 7.79% gap between spot and the 1380 median reflects three compounding pressures that the consensus had not fully priced when year-end targets were set. First, the Bank of Korea's easing cycle has moved faster than the Fed's, compressing the rate differential in a direction that historically weakens the won. The BoK cut rates earlier and more aggressively than most desks modelled, and with the Fed still holding terminal rates at restrictive levels through mid-2026, the carry disadvantage for KRW has been persistent. Second, the semiconductor export cycle — the primary hard-currency earner for Korea — has been uneven. Memory chip prices recovered through late 2025 but the pace of repatriation by Korean exporters has been slower than seasonal norms, reducing spot supply of dollars sold for won. Third, China beta has worked against KRW. Korea's export exposure to China means that whenever Chinese growth data disappoints or CNY weakens, KRW tends to underperform regional peers. All three channels have been active simultaneously in 2026, keeping spot pinned well above where rate-model frameworks would place it.
Where is the dispersion widest, and what regime does each tail price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-18 21:03 UTC
The 180-point spread — StanChart at 1280 versus Citi at 1460 — is the widest in the current consensus cycle and reflects two incompatible macro regimes. StanChart's 1280 target, the most aggressive KRW bull call in the panel, prices a scenario where Fed cuts arrive earlier and deeper than the dot plot implies, the BoK stabilises policy, and semiconductor export revenues accelerate through H2 2026 on AI-driven DRAM demand. At 1280, USD/KRW would be trading at levels last seen before the 2024 political volatility episode, implying a near-complete unwind of the risk premium accumulated since then.
Citi's 1460 target — the only outright bullish USD/KRW call in the panel — prices the opposite: Fed cuts are shallow or delayed, the BoK remains in easing mode, and China's demand recovery stays sub-trend. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 sit in the aggressive-KRW-recovery camp alongside StanChart, each requiring a meaningful shift in the BoK-Fed rate differential and a sustained improvement in Korea's current account dynamics. The cluster of desks between 1370 and 1395 — Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, MUFG, and Société Générale — represents the modal view: moderate KRW recovery, contingent on Fed cuts beginning by Q4 2026 and chip export volumes holding.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC at 1430 occupy a middle ground — both carry bearish stances on USD/KRW but their targets imply only modest won appreciation from spot, effectively pricing a slow-burn normalisation rather than a sharp reversal. ING at 1425 is the sole neutral call, consistent with a view that the BoK-Fed gap narrows only gradually and China beta remains a drag through year-end.
What would shift the consensus lower — or validate Citi's outlier call?
For the consensus to migrate toward the 1380 median, the market needs evidence on at least two of three fronts: Fed guidance shifting toward earlier or deeper cuts; BoK signalling a pause in its easing cycle as inflation stabilises; or a durable acceleration in Korean semiconductor exports — particularly DRAM and HBM — that forces corporates to sell dollars at scale. Any combination of those would compress the spot-to-consensus gap from the current 7.79%.
Citi's 1460 call would be validated if the Fed holds rates through Q4 2026, the BoK cuts again in response to domestic demand weakness, and China's property sector drag keeps Korean export growth below trend. The political risk premium embedded in KRW since late 2024 has not fully unwound; a renewed episode of domestic political uncertainty would also support Citi's thesis. The absence of fresh macro catalysts in the most recent seven-day window means the pair remains in a holding pattern, with spot anchored well above consensus and no near-term trigger to close the gap.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of July 18, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1487.46.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 firms is 1380.0, implying a 7.79% decline in USD/KRW from current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0, the only outright bullish USD/KRW call in the current 18-firm panel.
How wide is the disagreement among forecasters?
Dispersion between the most and least aggressive Dec-26 targets stands at 180 points — StanChart at 1280 versus Citi at 1460 — reflecting fundamentally different assumptions about the BoK-Fed rate path and Korea's export cycle.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the panel's most USD/KRW-bullish year-end call.
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