EM carry under selective resilient-growth backdrop — Migrate to higher-carry, more idiosyncratic stories
Rotation amongst FX funders — From Swiss and SEK towards Euro as preferred funder
Euro area sovereign spread widening – France in focus — Technical and positioning factors driving spread moves beyond fundamentals
Carry trade resilience with funder rotation — Rotate away from CHF and SEK funders toward EUR
Copper: Bullish conviction on China pull and supply risks — LME price in tug-of-war between US tariff news and China demand
Gold: Resilience despite higher real yields signals structural shift — ETF inflows holding even as real yields march higher post-Jackson Hole
EM rates in no-man's land: priced but not delivered — Curve dynamics reflect growth distribution repricing
OAT spread spillover into FX — European political risk now transmitting to FX via EUR crosses
Seasonality in DM government bond returns — September–October seasonally weak for bonds, especially in the US
AI sentiment as FX driver — Broad-based but uneven spillover across DM currencies
Brazil election as LATAM carry catalyst — Bolsonaro lead revives fiscal reform hopes
Middle East oil flow recovery and refined product constraints — Crude nearly normalised; product exports remain deeply depressed
Brexit risk premium erosion supporting GBP — UK-EU re-engagement and fiscal credibility boosting sterling
Cross-currency basis: range-bound with muted drivers — First PCA factor explaining only 45% of variance YTD – global co-movement has broken down
Higher-for-longer yields creating fiscal trap in EM
UK rates ahead of the autumn budget — Fiscal headroom reduced; limited scope for increased term premium