JPY Structural Issues

Backed by 1 desk

Japan's monetary policy and fiscal challenges are giving rise to structural concerns for the yen, particularly regarding trade deficits and inflation rates. The balance between growth and monetary accommodation remains delicate.

Each desk’s stance

Mizuho

JPY Supply-Demand 2027 Cliff — Trade deficit expansion as the real structural concern for JPY

Mizuho

France Turmoil Driving EUR Weakness — Political paralysis and fiscal indiscipline to keep EUR under pressure

Mizuho

AI Market Vulnerability as JPY Appreciation Risk — Leveraged AI investment structure poses systemic shock and JPY upside scenario

Mizuho

BOJ Behind-the-Curve Battle Begins — BOJ faces new challenge of preventing inflation overshoot above 2% target

Mizuho

EU Joint Bonds Structural Evolution — NGEU expiry and next MFF design as pivotal for euro area bond market stability

What’s driving this thesis

Fiscal deficits
Inflation control
Trade dynamics
Monetary policy challenges

The specific trades, targets and full rationale behind this thesis are on the trades board. See the full cross-bank macro-theme board for every narrative the desks are trading.

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