Webinar: The G10 FX winners and losers in 2027
The desk's thesis, derived from the upcoming ING webinar, is that G10 currencies will face significant shifts by 2027, influenced chiefly by the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and prevailing inflation rates. Per the full note, the dollar's strength is currently buoyed by solid growth and hawkish signals from the Fed, while FX volatility remains unexpectedly low. In terms of consensus, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1373, with a broad range of expectations as highlighted by recent consensus across firms for December 2026, showing targets between 1.1000 and 1.2000. Ahead of further Fed decisions, dynamics in U.S. and Eurozone currencies warrant close scrutiny as we approach the holiday trading period.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for G10 FX, particularly with the dollar's enduring strength underpinned by robust U.S. economic indicators and upcoming Fed policy decisions, maintaining significant traction against the EUR. Current conditions indicate solid growth, above-target inflation, and monetary policy adjustments are expected to further steer currency movements. Per the full note, the question of how much more the dollar can rally, as well as forecasts of low volatility amidst market uncertainties, remains critical to watch.
Recent projections show the EUR/USD trading below the consensus mark, with targets such as 1.1700 from rbc, suggesting that the market may not fully price in potential Fed actions. This measurement primarily falling short of expectations could also reveal how traders are positioning themselves amid evolving narratives. Increased positioning on shorting the euro against the dollar may surface if economic indicators continue to suggest hawkish Fed behavior and weaker Eurozone growth.
The alternative read would be that if inflation in the Eurozone were to unexpectedly pick up or if European Central Bank (ECB) hawkishness returned, this could lead to more favorable conditions for the euro. However, currently, the dollar is enjoying a robust narrative driven by solid growth metrics and hawkish sentiment.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING's webinar anticipates significant shifts in G10 FX by 2027, with a focus on U.S. monetary policy and inflation dynamics.
- 02Current EUR/USD spot at 1.1373 shows a consensus target range with monetary policy as a critical driver.
- 03The dollar remains strong due to solid growth and hawkish signals from the Fed, while volatility stays surprisingly low.
- 04Upcoming economic indicators could shift currency positioning, particularly in EUR/USD.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/USD closely, particularly if it approaches key resistance around the consensus targets from **rbc** and **hsbc**. Low volatility may be tested as expectations concerning the Fed's actions shift in response to economic data releases, especially concerning inflation ahead of potential interest rate hikes.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the thesis could occur if Eurozone economic indicators improve significantly, encouraging hawkish tendencies from the ECB, which may enhance the euro's strength against the dollar. Additionally, any substantial shift towards a more dovish Fed stance could ambush existing dollar strength forecasts.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
UniCredit | Bullish | 1.1600 |
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
Articles Webinar: The G10 FX winners and losers in 2027 Published 12:00 FX Translate Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Join Chris Turner, ING's Global Head of Markets, and FX Strategist Francesco Pesole on 16 November as they reveal their G10 FX winners and losers for 2027 and explore the key themes driving currency markets in the year ahead. Sign up here Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole Solid US growth, above-target inflation and a hawkish Fed are keeping the dollar near the highs of the year. And despite an abundance of possible risks, FX volatility remains remarkably low.
Heading into 2027, the big questions are how much further the Fed has to hike, how much more the dollar has to rally, and whether FX volatility can stay low. Join Chris Turner (Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research UK & CEE) and Francesco Pesole (FX Strategist) to explore these themes. You’ll learn: The G10 FX winners and losers ING’s views on the main themes driving core FX trends in 2027 EUR/USD scenario analysis The factors weighing on FX volatility and the outlook for next year Details Date: Monday, 16 November Time: 1400 GMT/1500 CET/0900 ET The webinar will last 30 minutes, including a Q&A session at the end.
The event will take place online and the waiting room will open 60 minutes ahead of the scheduled start time. A joining link will be emailed following registration and you will receive a reminder email 10 minutes before the scheduled start time. G10 FX FX Outlook Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Chris Turner Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE Chris is Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE. Together with his team, he provides short and medium-term FX recommendations for ING's corporate and… Francesco Pesole FX Strategist Francesco is an FX Strategist and has been with the firm since May 2019.
His main focus is on the G10 space and, in particular, on European and commodity currencies. He began his career at Credit…
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