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18:21ZEM Fixed Income: EM stays sturdy as the hawkish stars align 18:08ZFX Outlook 2027: Seven key calls 18:07ZFX Outlook 2027: Seven key risks 18:06ZFX volatility in 2027: In need of shock therapy 18:05ZG10 FX Outlook 2027: It’s hard to look beyond the Fed 18:04ZEMEA FX Outlook 2027: Restrictive policy remains the key FX anchor 18:03ZLatam FX Outlook 2027: Banxico abandons the peso 18:03ZAsia FX Outlook 2027: Rotation underway but tech currencies should lead 18:01ZFX Outlook 2027: Our latest forecasts 18:00ZFX Outlook 2027: Fat tails, slim ranges 18:21ZEM Fixed Income: EM stays sturdy as the hawkish stars align 18:08ZFX Outlook 2027: Seven key calls 18:07ZFX Outlook 2027: Seven key risks 18:06ZFX volatility in 2027: In need of shock therapy 18:05ZG10 FX Outlook 2027: It’s hard to look beyond the Fed 18:04ZEMEA FX Outlook 2027: Restrictive policy remains the key FX anchor 18:03ZLatam FX Outlook 2027: Banxico abandons the peso 18:03ZAsia FX Outlook 2027: Rotation underway but tech currencies should lead 18:01ZFX Outlook 2027: Our latest forecasts 18:00ZFX Outlook 2027: Fat tails, slim ranges

Macro Risk-Off Sentiment

Backed by 1 desk

Market participants are increasingly cautious, as macroeconomic conditions provoke risk-off sentiment that reshapes investment strategies.

Each desk’s stance

ING

Defensive FX outperformance over broad dollar decline — Tech sell-off seen as idiosyncratic, not a macro harbinger

ING

AI/tech equity selloff contagion to FX — Risk-off mood required to sustain dollar rally

ING

China K-shaped divergence: external vs domestic demand — New economy outperforms, old economy lags

ING

UK re-joining EU customs union — Bold call: Britain ends 2027 considerably closer to EU

ING

CEE FX faces headwinds from narrowing rate differentials and strong USD

ING

CEE energy shock and inflation divergence — Policy divergence as a defining regional theme

ING

CCA regional resilience amid global volatility — Domestically-driven buffers shield the region from tighter core rates

ING

Dollar supported until next spring, then softens — Base call: Fed hawkish in Q1, pivot in Q2 as inflation falls

ING

CBT easing cycle continues despite inflation blip — October inflation uptick unlikely to alter policy direction

ING

Bearish yield curve flattening lifts the dollar — Fed taking rates into restrictive territory hurts activity currencies

ING

Risky call: AI bust — AI sector correction could weaken dollar significantly

ING

CEE complex faces challenging global environment — Gas prices and narrowing rate differentials are the key risks

ING

Geopolitical dividend at risk — Risky call: fragmentation tailwinds could reverse

ING

CEE rate outpricing and risk-off exposure — Narrower differentials and stronger USD weigh on region

ING

China inflation recovery: escaping deflation — CPI expected at 1.1% YoY in 2027

ING

TRY rates have further room to fall; curve to steepen — Market pricing in December cut and additional 2026 cuts

ING

Bank of England hike then cut in 2027 — Base call: rate hike in February, cuts before year-end

ING

Markets move ahead of rating agencies on CCA upgrades — Bold call: Uzbekistan and Armenia priced as investment-grade stories pre-formally

ING

Bold call: Overseas growth surprises positively — Eurozone and Japan could draw funds away from the dollar

ING

China property sector: drag fading but not gone — Price stabilisation in tier-1 cities is an encouraging sign

ING

PBOC easing bias amid global tightening — Single 10bp benchmark rate cut expected in 2027

What’s driving this thesis

Global equity and credit stress
Investor sentiment shifts
Safe-haven asset flows
Stablecoin implications
Currency adjustments in risk-off scenarios

The specific trades, targets and full rationale behind this thesis are on the trades board. See the full cross-bank macro-theme board for every narrative the desks are trading.

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 39 institutional desks. No promotion.