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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Selic
13.75%
as of 2026-10-06
Next meeting
Nov 3-4
T-24d
The Banco Central do Brasil conducts monetary policy for Brazil under a formal inflation-targeting regime, with the Selic rate as its main policy instrument. The Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) meets eight times per year over two days to set the policy rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Selic
13.75%
As of 2026-10-06
BRL 2026 consensus
5.10
median of 18 banks
BRL net longs (CFTC)
27,396
latest as of
Next macro event
BCB Focus Market Readout
USD/BRL spot at 5.1262 sits 0.51% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion signalling…
Read research →USD/BRL trades at 5.0731, just 0.53% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion masking…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCB Focus Market Readout | BR | Med | — | — | |
| Business Confidence (Oct) | BR | Med | 44% | 44.9% | |
| Retail Sales MoM (Aug) | BR | Med | 0.4% | -0.8% | |
| CFTC BRL speculative net positions | BR | Med | — | 52.3 K | |
| BCB Focus Market Readout | BR | Med | — | — | |
| BCB National Monetary Council Meeting | BR | Med | — | — | |
| BCB Focus Market Readout | BR | Med | — | — | |
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Sep) | BR | Med | — | 82.9% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
Lead — The current environment reflects a resurgence of market optimism, driven by encouraging developments in the U.S.-Iran talks as noted by UBS GWM Chief Economist Paul Donovan. Per the full note,…
Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week for FX markets, driven by key economic indicators and central bank decisions, particularly in the US and Australia. Per the full note [source], the focus…
Contribution by Mr Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the BCBS International…
CONTRIBUTION Supervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectiveness Contribution by Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB and Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at…
Morgan Stanley Cert Deposito Arg Repr 0.024390 Sh Trade Ideas — BCBA:MS.CI tradingview.com
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for BCB
Latest net
27,396
BRL non-commercial contracts
WoW change
+17,843
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing BCB across covered research desks
The next Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) policy decision is scheduled for Nov 3-4. Because Banco Central do Brasil sets monetary policy for the BRL, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for BRL exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their BRL forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' BRL targets shift before and after BCB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Banco Central do Brasil's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the BRL, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for BRL forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the BCB path and translates it into where the BRL consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Banco Central do Brasil's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their BRL targets. Relative policy paths (the BCB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which BCB actions transmit into the BRL. FX Bank Forecast compares the published BRL forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the BCB outlook evolves.