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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Target RRP
5.00%
as of 2026-10-09
Next meeting
Oct 22
T-0d
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is the central bank of the Philippines, operating under an inflation-targeting framework with a mandate to maintain price and financial stability. The Monetary Board meets six times per year on a pre-announced schedule to set the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate, which is the policy rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Target RRP
5.00%
As of 2026-10-09
PHP 2026 consensus
62.00
median of 4 banks
Next macro event
Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
| Impact |
|---|
| Consensus |
|---|
| Previous |
|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | PH | Med | 7.3% | 7.2% | |
| Unemployment Rate (Sep) | PH | Med | 5.2% | 5.3% | |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) | PH | Med | 5.5% | 2.3% | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | PH | Med | 1.2% | 0.6% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The upcoming week in Asia sees crucial interest rate decisions, particularly in the Philippines where the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to enact a 25bp hike against a backdrop of…
The desk interprets the recent actions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) as a firm commitment to maintaining a hawkish stance in response to persistent inflation risks driven by external…
The ING desk argues that despite a slight easing in Philippines headline inflation to 6.4% YoY in June, the acceleration in core inflation to 4.4% and sticky services/utility costs support the case…
Message by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 58th Annual Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX)…
BSP intervention may no longer stem peso’s fall to ₱63 per dollar Manila Bulletin
Reports referencing BSP across covered research desks
The next Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 22. Because Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas sets monetary policy for the PHP, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for PHP exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their PHP forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' PHP targets shift before and after BSP decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the PHP, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for PHP forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the BSP path and translates it into where the PHP consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their PHP targets. Relative policy paths (the BSP versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which BSP actions transmit into the PHP. FX Bank Forecast compares the published PHP forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the BSP outlook evolves.