FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
Base rate
4.00%
as of 2025-12-11
Next meeting
Jul 29
T-18d
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is the central banking institution of Hong Kong, mandated to maintain currency stability under the Linked Exchange Rate System that pegs the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar at 7.75–7.85. The HKMA Base Rate is set by formula — 50 basis points above the lower bound of the US federal funds target range, or the five-day moving average of overnight and 1-month HIBORs, whichever is higher — and is therefore adjusted in lockstep with US Fed decisions rather than on a fixed domestic schedule.
Tracks FOMC
HKMA has no fixed domestic meeting calendar — its Base Rate adjusts in lockstep with US Federal Reserve decisions under the Linked Exchange Rate System. Next FOMC meeting: Jul 29.
View Fed scheduleHKMA Base Rate updates follow the FOMC announcement (next-day Hong Kong time). Source: official central bank schedules.
Base rate
4.00%
As of 2025-12-11
3 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk posits that the ongoing dialogue around sustainable economic frameworks, as highlighted by Eddie Yue at the recent International Conference, signals a pivotal shift in monetary policy…
Reports referencing HKMA across covered research desks
Keynote speech by Mr Howard Lee, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong Digital Finance Summit 2026, Hong Kong, 29 May 2026.
Opening remarks by Mr Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the 2026 Global PMI Summit, Hong Kong, 29 May 2026.
The next Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) policy decision is scheduled for Jul 29. Because Hong Kong Monetary Authority sets monetary policy for the HKD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for HKD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their HKD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' HKD targets shift before and after HKMA decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the HKD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for HKD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 30 major banks read the HKMA path and translates it into where the HKD consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Hong Kong Monetary Authority's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their HKD targets. Relative policy paths (the HKMA versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which HKMA actions transmit into the HKD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published HKD forecasts of 30 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the HKMA outlook evolves.