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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
One-week repo
37.00%
as of 2026-10-02
Next meeting
Oct 22
T-12d
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) conducts monetary policy for Türkiye, with a primary objective of price stability. The Monetary Policy Committee meets monthly on a pre-announced schedule to set the one-week repo rate, which is the policy rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
One-week repo
37.00%
As of 2026-10-02
TRY 2026 consensus
50.50
median of 17 banks
Next macro event
Business Confidence (Oct)
USD/TRY trades 2.66% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion exposing deep…
Read research →USD/TRY trades 3.6% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a 12.8-point dispersion reflecting sharply…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|
| Business Confidence (Oct) | TR | Med | 102.5% | 102% | |
| Consumer Confidence (Oct) | TR | Med | 92% | 91.9% | |
| TCMB Interest Rate Decision | TR | Med | 37% | 37% | |
| Unemployment Rate (Sep) | TR | Med | 7.9% | 7.8% | |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | TR | Med | -5.23 | -5.24 | |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | TR | Med | — | 1.84% | |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | TR | Med | — | 29.73% | |
| Balance of Trade (Oct) | TR | Med | — | -5.23 |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has opted to hold its key interest rate at 37% amid escalating geopolitical risks and rising inflation driven by surging oil prices, as highlighted in the recent…
Morgan Stanley expects two rate cuts from the CBRT in the final quarter SteelRadar
Speech by Dr Fatih Karahan, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, at the briefing on the Inflation Report 2025-III, Istanbul, 13 August 2026.
Turkish Lira: Inflation expectations outpace CBRT forecasts – Commerzbank CryptoRank
Turkish Lira: Tight CBRT funding offers marginal support – Commerzbank FXStreet
Reports referencing TCMB across covered research desks
USD/TRY trades at 48.60, roughly 3.75% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a record 12.80-point dispersion…
The next Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 22. Because Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası sets monetary policy for the TRY, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for TRY exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their TRY forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' TRY targets shift before and after TCMB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the TRY, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for TRY forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the TCMB path and translates it into where the TRY consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their TRY targets. Relative policy paths (the TCMB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which TCMB actions transmit into the TRY. FX Bank Forecast compares the published TRY forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the TCMB outlook evolves.