Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
One-week repo
39.50%
as of 2026-01-22
Next meeting
Jul 23
T-12d
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) conducts monetary policy for Türkiye, with a primary objective of price stability. The Monetary Policy Committee meets monthly on a pre-announced schedule to set the one-week repo rate, which is the policy rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
One-week repo
39.50%
As of 2026-01-22
TRY 2026 consensus
50.50
median of 18 banks
Next macro event
Business Confidence (Jul)
| Med |
| — |
| 103.5% |
| Consumer Confidence (Jul) | TR | Med | — | 87.9% |
| TCMB Interest Rate Decision | TR | Med | 37% | 37% |
| Unemployment Rate (Jun) | TR | Med | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Balance of Trade (Jun) | TR | Med | -7.8 B | -5.61 B |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | TR | Med | — | 32.11% |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | TR | Med | — | 0.99% |
| Industrial Production YoY (Jun) | TR | Med | 2.4% | 0% |
Reports referencing TCMB across covered research desks
The next Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) policy decision is scheduled for Jul 23. Because Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası sets monetary policy for the TRY, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for TRY exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their TRY forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' TRY targets shift before and after TCMB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the TRY, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for TRY forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 30 major banks read the TCMB path and translates it into where the TRY consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their TRY targets. Relative policy paths (the TCMB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which TCMB actions transmit into the TRY. FX Bank Forecast compares the published TRY forecasts of 30 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the TCMB outlook evolves.