On this page · 3 sections▾
USD/TRY spot at 48.25 sits 3.99% below the 18-firm December 2026 consensus of 50.25, and the full USD/TRY bank forecast table captures a 12.80-point max-to-min dispersion — the widest in EM FX — driven almost entirely by disagreement over whether the TCMB's real-rate anchor holds through year-end.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 48.2458
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Gap vs spot: −3.99% (spot well below consensus)
- Most-bullish firm on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30
- Most-bearish firm on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade below the cross-firm consensus?
Q1–Q4 2026 TRY targets across 18 firms, with cross-firm median path and 25–75th-percentile band on terminal targets.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-06-02 02:20 UTC
The TCMB's real-rate posture is the fulcrum. Policy rates remain deeply positive in real terms relative to the post-2021 baseline, and the central bank has maintained a credible hold through successive inflation prints. That has compressed the carry bleed that historically drove TRY depreciation at a near-mechanical pace. Spot at 48.25 reflects a market that is, for now, willing to hold lira exposure against a backdrop of controlled disinflation — but the consensus at 50.25 implies that 13 of the 14 desks publishing targets above spot expect that discipline to erode before December. The gap of −3.99% is not noise; it is the market pricing a higher probability of TCMB success than the sell-side median allows.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the near-term lira bid. Gross reserves have rebuilt materially from the 2023 trough, reducing the perceived tail risk of a disorderly depreciation episode. The TCMB's capacity to intervene — and its demonstrated willingness to do so — has shortened the window in which speculative short-TRY positions can be held profitably. That asymmetry keeps spot anchored below consensus even as the structural depreciation argument remains intact over a multi-quarter horizon.
Which banks are the outliers, and what explains the 12.80-point dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-06-02 02:20 UTC
The 12.80-point spread between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is not a rounding disagreement — it reflects fundamentally different assumptions about the inflation exit path and the durability of orthodox policy.
ING sits at the top of the distribution with a 56.30 target and a neutral stance, implying the desk sees TRY depreciation as the base case but assigns meaningful uncertainty around the pace. The 56.30 level would represent roughly a 16.6% move from current spot — a trajectory consistent with a view that headline inflation re-accelerates and the TCMB is forced into a premature easing cycle under fiscal pressure.
At the opposite pole, UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 — both with bearish stances on USD/TRY, meaning they expect the pair to fall further — are pricing a scenario in which the disinflation path holds, real rates remain positive, and the lira continues to grind stronger in real effective terms. Both targets sit below current spot, making them the most constructive on TRY in the 18-firm panel.
The cluster between 49.50 and 53.50 — where Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan are concentrated — represents the modal view: gradual TRY depreciation driven by residual inflation differentials and current account dynamics, but no disorderly move. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 is the most bearish within this central cluster, consistent with a view that the TCMB begins easing earlier than the consensus timeline implies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
USD/TRY trades at 48.2458 as of August 2026, approximately 3.99% below the 18-firm December 2026 consensus target of 50.25.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast for December 2026?
ING carries the highest published target at 56.30, implying significant lira weakness from current levels by year-end.
Which bank is most constructive on the Turkish lira?
UBS holds the lowest USD/TRY target at 43.50, a level below current spot that implies further lira appreciation if the TCMB's disinflation path remains intact.
How wide is the disagreement across banks covering USD/TRY?
At 12.80 points (max minus min across 18 firms), the dispersion on USD/TRY is the widest in EM FX, reflecting genuine structural uncertainty over Turkey's inflation trajectory and reserve adequacy rather than simple model variation.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive USD/TRY depreciation call in the 18-firm panel.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.28, Median Target 50.25 — Week of September 1, 2026
USD/TRY trades 3.93% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, Week of Aug 31 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 3.98% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Median, 12.80 Spread — Week of August 30, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
Share