On this page · 3 sections▾
USD/TRY trades at 47.16 — 6.14% below the 18-firm cross-desk consensus of 50.25 for December 2026 — with a dispersion of 12.80 points between the highest and lowest published targets, the widest spread in the EM FX forecast universe; see the full USD/TRY bank forecast table for the complete picture.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 47.16
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points across 18 firms
- Gap vs spot: −6.14% (spot well below consensus)
- Highest target: ING at 56.30
- Lowest target: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.00 | bearish |
| RBC | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade well below the cross-desk consensus?
Q1–Q4 2026 TRY targets across 18 firms, with cross-firm median path and 25–75th-percentile band on terminal targets.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-06-02 02:20 UTC
The TCMB's orthodox tightening cycle — initiated in mid-2023 and sustained through 2025 — has delivered a meaningful positive real policy rate for the first time in years. With Turkish CPI decelerating from its 2024 peaks, the nominal rate held at elevated levels now translates into a real carry buffer that has attracted portfolio inflows into Turkish fixed income. That carry demand has kept TRY firmer than most end-2026 targets imply, pushing spot to 47.16 against a consensus of 50.25.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture near term. Gross reserves have rebuilt materially from the depleted levels that characterized the pre-orthodoxy era, and the TCMB has demonstrated willingness to intervene — or at minimum to signal intervention — when depreciation pressures accelerate. The combination of positive real rates, recovering reserves, and a current account that has narrowed on weaker domestic demand creates a short-term anchor that the market is pricing. The question is durability: most desks expect the lira to resume its structural drift as the real-rate advantage compresses through H2 2026, which is why the consensus sits 6.14% above current spot.
Which desks are the outliers, and where is the spread widest?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-06-02 02:20 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is not a rounding disagreement — it reflects genuinely divergent macro frameworks. ING's 56.30 target embeds an assumption that the TCMB will face political pressure to ease prematurely, eroding the real-rate advantage and triggering a resumption of the structural depreciation trend that has defined TRY over the past decade. On that view, the current firmness is a temporary policy artifact rather than a durable equilibrium.
UBS at 43.50 sits 3.66 points below current spot — a call that TRY actually appreciates from here. That requires the TCMB to hold rates long enough for inflation to fall toward single digits, generating a real-rate premium that draws sustained capital. HSBC at 44.50 is similarly constructive, implying the disinflation path remains intact and that reserve accumulation continues to provide a credible backstop.
The bulk of the consensus — Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, and RBC all cluster between 50.00 and 50.50 — reflects a base case of gradual, managed depreciation consistent with a real-rate that erodes slowly rather than collapses. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 sit in the more cautious tier, pricing in some policy slippage without going as far as ING's stress scenario.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
USD/TRY trades at 47.16 as of July 2026, placing it 6.14% below the 18-firm cross-desk consensus Dec-26 target of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The median forecast across 18 institutional desks is 50.25 for December 2026, implying further TRY depreciation from current levels if the consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING carries the highest published target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50 — a spread of 12.80 points that represents the widest dispersion in the EM FX forecast set.
How does the TCMB's real-rate stance affect the outlook?
Positive real rates have anchored TRY near term by attracting carry inflows and enabling reserve rebuilding; the divergence in bank targets hinges almost entirely on how long the TCMB can sustain that stance before political or growth pressures force an easing cycle.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most bearish published scenario on USD/TRY, including the rationale behind the 56.30 year-end target.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.17, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of July 18, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.1% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.06, Median Target 50.25 — Week of July 16, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion reflecting deep disagreement on TCMB's real-rate path.
- USD/TRY
TCMB Rate Decision Preview — July 23, 2026: Street Targets 50.25
USD/TRY trades at 47.05, roughly 6.4% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, leaving the lira looking stretched ahead of the TCMB's July 23 hold decision.
Readers also opened
Share