2022 Financial Market Surprises Podcast
At a Glance
The desk posits that the financial markets are currently underestimating the potential for significant surprises, or 'black swans', that could disrupt existing forecasts. Per the full note source, Eric Robertsen emphasizes the importance of considering scenarios that may not be on the radar of most analysts. This perspective is particularly relevant as we navigate a landscape marked by geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary policies, which could catalyze unexpected market movements. With the consensus target for EUR/USD sitting at 1.075, traders should remain vigilant for any signs of volatility that could arise from these overlooked scenarios.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the focus on traditional forecasts may blind traders to significant market surprises that could emerge in the near term. Per the full note source, Robertsen's insights highlight the necessity of preparing for scenarios that deviate from the norm, particularly in a volatile environment shaped by central bank decisions and geopolitical risks.
Supporting this view, recent data indicates that market positioning remains heavily skewed towards a stable outlook, with many traders underestimating the potential for abrupt shifts. For instance, the current positioning in the EUR/USD market suggests a consensus that may not fully account for the impact of upcoming central bank meetings or geopolitical developments.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the range, while bofa presents a more cautious outlook at the lower end. The desk's call reflects a belief that the market may be underpricing the risks of unexpected events that could drive the EUR/USD higher.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including citi and jpmorgan, share a similar outlook, emphasizing the potential for upward movement in the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, bofa remains skeptical, advocating for a more conservative approach given the current economic indicators.
Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/USD trajectory, particularly in relation to the ECB's monetary policy stance, as well as any developments from the Fed that could influence market sentiment.
What the calendar says
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From the original
The business of research spends a lot of time looking at forecasts. But the question that always comes up is, what are the surprises? What are the black swans? In this podcast, Eric Robertsen takes a look at – not forecasts – but possible scenarios that the financial market may h
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