The financial-market surprises of 2026
At a Glance
The desk interprets Standard Chartered's recent commentary as a reminder of potential market disruptions in 2026, emphasizing that while these scenarios are not predictions, their implications could be significant. Per the full note from Standard Chartered, Eric Robertsen outlines several unlikely events that could lead to substantial volatility across financial markets. This perspective aligns with our view that the current market is underpricing geopolitical risks and central bank policy shifts. As we approach the end of 2023, the market remains sensitive to these external shocks, which could redefine currency trajectories.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a crucial moment for FX traders to reassess their risk exposure in light of potential surprises that could emerge in 2026. Standard Chartered's Eric Robertsen highlights scenarios that, while not forecasted, could disrupt the status quo and lead to significant market movements.
The commentary suggests that the market may be complacent about geopolitical tensions and economic shifts, which could lead to volatility. For instance, Robertsen's scenarios could resonate with the current market dynamics, where positioning appears overly optimistic regarding central bank policies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of our consensus range, while bofa represents a more cautious stance at the lower bound. The desk's outlook suggests a potential for upward adjustment if geopolitical risks materialize as outlined by Standard Chartered.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including jpmorgan and citi, share a more bullish outlook on the EUR/USD, anticipating a stronger euro against the dollar. Conversely, bofa and gs maintain a bearish stance, reflecting concerns over economic stability and potential rate cuts.
Watch the EUR/USD trajectory closely, as it may be influenced by the ECB's policy decisions and the Fed's approach to interest rates. These central bank actions will likely intersect with the scenarios presented by Standard Chartered, potentially amplifying market reactions.
What the calendar says
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From the original
Standard Chartered’s Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research and Chief Strategist, identifies several surprise events that could disrupt financial markets in 2026. These are not forecasts or predictions, but potential scenarios that – while perhaps unlikely – could have an outsiz
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