A BOJ rate hike is coming, but can the Japanese yen hold its gains?
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
MUFG | Bullish | 152.00 |
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With the Japanese yen on the move this week, there is a lot of focus and talk on the BOJ ahead of their next monetary policy decision next week. Expectations for another rate hike are rising sharply before their meeting on 17-18 September, with markets now assigning a ~79% probab
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4 itemsBank of Japan preview: 25bp hike incoming
The desk anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) during its upcoming meeting on September 18, 2026, aligning with market expectations for aggressive policy tightening. This view is supported by significant increases in money market rates, with one-month JPY OIS rates rising 50 basis points since July, indicating heightened expectations for further hikes. Notably, local data, such as 2.4% growth in real cash earnings, also backs the notion of pressure on the BoJ to adjust rates to aid currency stabilization. The upcoming BoJ meeting is pivotal; a failure to deliver on expected tightening could lead to negative sentiment towards the yen, particularly affecting the USD/JPY pair, given its sensitivity to BoJ policy shifts (Per the full note [source]).
BOJ likely to hike next month and again in January, says ex-board member
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