BofA cuts USD/JPY forecast to 152 (prior 157) and flags three triggers for yen bull turn - TradingView

What the desk is arguing

The desk interprets BofA's revised USD/JPY forecast as a critical signal of a potential reversal in USD strength, now projected to land at 152 by year-end. This change emphasizes a growing consensus that the yen could strengthen against the dollar, especially if triggers identified by BofA materialize.

With the current USD/JPY spot at 157.00, this revision is significant considering that the broader market reflects a consensus in the mid-150 range, signaling a divergence in outlooks. Data on US inflation and the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy will likely influence these developments.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our internal consensus target for USD/JPY is 154.5, with a range from a low of 149.0 to a high of 160.0. Notable per-firm targets for December 2026 include: - jpmorgan: 164.0 - goldman: 148.0 - barclays: 149.0

This BofA perspective aligns with the lower end of projected forecasts, as their revised objective of 152 is notably below many other firms' expectations, exemplifying a cautious sentiment that could materialize if a yen strengthening emerges.

How other firms see it

Several firms share a relatively bullish view towards the yen, projecting targets that range closely to BofA’s revised forecast level, such as goldman at 148.0 and hsbc at 150.0. Conversely, firms like jpmorgan and morganstanley hold more optimistic views on the USD strength, forecasting targets around 157.0 and 150.0, respectively.

Attention is warranted on related indicators such as US inflation trends and monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, which are likely to influence exchange rate movements.