FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Bank of Japan outlook moves the JPY bank consensus across 35 desks
View Bank of Japan outlookFrom the original
66 of 70 economists (~94%) forecast the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1% in June (previously ~65%) 68 of 69 economists (~99%) expect policy rate to reach at least 1% by the end of September 53 of 67 economists (~79%) expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.25% in Q4 2026 A
The desk interprets the Bank of Japan's March minutes as indicative of a growing internal debate regarding the urgency of rate hikes, particularly in light of rising inflation risks tied to geopolitical tensions. The BOJ's 8-1 vote to maintain rates at 0.75% reflects a cautious approach, but the minutes reveal a significant concern about falling behind the curve on inflation, especially with the Iran conflict driving up oil prices. Per the full note [source], the board's discussions suggest that further rate increases are likely if economic conditions and inflation expectations evolve as anticipated. This aligns with our view that the BOJ may need to act sooner than previously expected to maintain price stability.