CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data
At a Glance
The Polish economy is expected to show signs of slowing growth as key data is set to be released next week. Per the full note from ing-think, the third-quarter GDP flash estimate is projected to moderate to 3.4% YoY from 4.1% YoY in the previous quarter. Additionally, inflation figures and the current account data will provide critical insights into the economic landscape in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). With potential implications for monetary policy, traders should monitor these updates closely.
Key Takeaways
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that Poland's economic momentum is set to wane, with increased fuel prices constraining household spending. According to ing-think, GDP growth is anticipated to decline to 3.4% YoY, underscoring a notable shift in consumption habits.
Further compounding this narrative is the expected rise in headline inflation, which may stabilize at the top of the central bank's target range, suggesting that the National Bank of Poland is justified in taking a patient stance on interest rate adjustments. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to drop below 3% YoY, marking the first retreat since March.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the Polish zloty (PLN) against the euro (EUR) is set at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 to 1.12. Notable banks providing forecasts include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view is consistent with jpmorgan's more aggressive outlook while diverging from bofa's bearish stance. Currently, our target remains aligned with broader expectations around softening growth in the region.
How other firms see it
Analysts from jpmorgan and deutschebank are broadly aligned with our view that the Polish economy is headed for slower growth, albeit they remain optimistic on structural improvements. Conversely, bofa emphasizes the potential risks of a sharper downturn, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/PLN pair in light of these developments, particularly with the central bank's stance on inflation and growth playing a pivotal role in shaping monetary policy decisions going forward.
Market Implications
Traders should watch for significant movements in the PLN, particularly against the EUR, as these macroeconomic indicators are released. A maintained GDP growth around 3.4% may stabilize sentiments, while inflation dynamics could influence monetary policy.
From the original
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data Published 11:45 Translate Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland will release third-quarter GDP, final inflation and current account data next week, while Hungary pu
Related speeches
4 itemsPoland’s economy enters the third quarter on an uneven footing
The desk interprets recent bank commentary suggesting that Poland's economy shows signs of uneven growth entering Q3, despite a strong end to Q2. While industrial output remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in July, the construction sector has experienced a notable decline, which could dampen growth expectations. Per the full note from ing-think, GDP growth is projected at 3.4% for 2026, indicating a resilient outlook, albeit with potential headwinds from construction. Traders should watch for how these trends might affect the PLN in the context of regional European economic performance and monetary policy outlooks.
CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish industry and labour market data, Czech producer prices in focus
This week's focus on Polish and Czech macroeconomic data is critical for gauging economic sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe, especially given the implications for monetary policy. Per the full note [source], July industrial output in Poland is expected to show steady growth driven by increasing investments, while PPI is projected to rise due to input cost pressures exacerbated by a weaker koruna. Additionally, cooling labour market dynamics could temper inflationary pressures, aligning with observed trends across the region. The consensus now emphasizes that soft labor conditions are likely to maintain a lid on broader inflation concerns, pushing back aggressive monetary tightening scenarios from the central banks involved.