CEE: Moving in all directions
At a Glance
Per the full note by ING strategists, CEE economies are diverging in policy paths but share a broadly benign outlook. Poland holds rates steady amid easing inflation and softening growth, while the Czech Republic expands with contained CPI despite cost pressures. Hungary's post-election rally supports an easing bias with scope for summer rate cuts as risk premia fall. No high-impact events are on the calendar in the next 30 days for these jurisdictions.
Key Takeaways
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The ING desk argues that Central and Eastern European economies are moving in different directions but the overall outlook remains benign. The note highlights Poland holding rates steady as inflation eases and growth softens, the Czech economy expanding with contained CPI despite cost pressures, and Hungary post-election rally supporting an easing bias.
Supporting evidence includes Poland's steady rate policy amid easing inflation and softening growth, the Czech Republic's expansion with contained CPI despite cost pressures, and Hungary's post-election rally enabling summer rate cuts as risk premia fall and inflation outlook improves.
The counterfactual rejected is a more hawkish stance in Hungary or a recession in Poland, which the desk sees as unlikely given the data trajectory.
Market Implications
Focus on Hungarian forint and Polish zloty as rate differentials shift. Watch for summer rate cuts in Hungary that could weaken the forint. Czech koruna may remain supported by contained inflation.
From the original
Articles CEE: Moving in all directions 10:37 Czech Republic Hungary Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The outlook for Central and Eastern Europe is broadly benign: Poland is holding rates steady as inflation eases and growth softens, the
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Tepid Czech inflation suggests rate stability
The desk maintains that the outlook for Czech inflation suggests a period of rate stability, outlining a careful balance in the economy. Per the full note from ING, Czech headline inflation registered a surprise drop to 1.5% year-on-year in June, primarily driven by declining food prices. With core inflation expected to remain subdued as the economy operates below potential, the consensus is shifting towards a stable rate environment. Meanwhile, there are no immediate calendar catalysts that could disrupt this narrative in the coming month.