Coming up: What Lagarde may say next, two days after the ECB's rate rise
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Any Lagarde remarks so soon after Thursday's 25 basis point hike carry some scope to move EUR crosses, though a low-key regional event is a very different venue from a formal press conference, and markets should calibrate expectations accordingly. If she reiterates the "supply sh
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4 itemsECB preview: What major banks and analysts expect from Lagarde and interest rates
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today, reaching a deposit facility rate of 2.50%. However, the real focus will be on President Lagarde's signals regarding future rate hikes, amidst mixed expectations from major banks. Per the full note [source], Barclays and Danske Bank believe that Lagarde will keep options open for further action without committing to any explicit guidance. With market attention turning towards inflation and energy prices, any signs of hesitancy from the ECB could shift sentiment in the EUR/USD pair significantly.
Lagarde keeps the door open for further ECB rate hikes
The desk interprets today’s press conference as a strategic signaling maneuver by the ECB, indicating a readiness to consider additional rate hikes in response to rising inflationary pressures. As President Lagarde noted, while the latest 25 basis point increase to 2.25% may seem modest, it effectively lays the groundwork against potential economic stagnation amidst broader inflationary concerns. Per the full note from ing-think, this shift is partly a response to past hesitations in tackling inflation, which Lagarde acknowledged. Given the ECB's historical context, traders should be mindful of the potential for further tightening if inflation dynamics worsen, especially as external geopolitical factors continue to reflect inflationary trends in Europe.
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