Commodity Forecast Change: Energy Supply Risks and a Wavering Fed Set the Path - TD Securities
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Commodity Forecast Change: Energy Supply Risks and a Wavering Fed Set the Path TD Securities
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4 itemsGlobal Commodities: Is that it?
J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research warns that calm energy markets mask a supply shock, with the risk that the sanguine 'Is that it?' narrative could flip to a more anxious 'What if this isn't?' as geopolitical conflicts persist. The desk's scenario analysis suggests current price stability may be fragile, as fundamentals and market confidence have only temporarily suppressed volatility. Per the full note [source], the potential for a sudden re-pricing in energy could spill over into FX markets, particularly for commodity currencies like NOK, CAD, and AUD, if conflict-driven supply disruptions intensify.