Dollar hits highest since May 2025 before payrolls; Asia FX slips despite strong data
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Tonight's payrolls are the pivot for both the dollar and Asian currencies. A print below the roughly 90,000 consensus would likely knock Treasury yields and the dollar index lower and free tech-linked currencies to reflect strong regional fundamentals, while a firm number would r
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4 itemsGlobal FX: Mid-Year Outlook pushbacks, payrolls, CNY, GBP
In their latest review, J.P. Morgan's Global FX Strategists highlight pivotal market dynamics affecting key currencies, particularly focusing on the upcoming payrolls data for the dollar and ongoing shifts in CNY and GBP. Per the full note [source], the emphasis is on the interplay between U.S. economic indicators and currency valuations, positioning traders to recalibrate strategies based on data-driven insights. The report notes that anticipated payroll numbers could significantly sway dollar trajectories, providing a critical lens through which to view upcoming currency movements.
FX Daily: October Fed hike remains very data dependent
The desk frames the recent soft US data as supportive of a cautious Fed, which, alongside elevated long-term yields, continues to underpin dollar strength. Per the full note, pricing for an October Fed hike has dipped to below 50% following disappointing consumer sentiment and job openings data, showcasing a growing data dependency in markets. The anticipation of today's releases of PCE inflation and ADP payrolls reinforces this notion, as both could influence short-term rate expectations. As the dollar remains bid—ringing in despite softer economic indicators—the stakes for the upcoming data releases have never been higher.