Entering the age of the older consumer
The desk interprets the emerging trend of an aging consumer demographic in the U.S. as a pivotal shift for economic conditions and consumer spending patterns. As illustrated in Bank of America's recent commentary, the proportion of Americans over 60 is projected to increase from around 20% in 2025 to nearly 30% by 2055. This substantial demographic shift, driven by longer life expectancies and retiring baby boomers, implies that older consumers will not only wield significant disposable income but will increasingly dictate consumer market dynamics. Per the full note , with their substantial wealth and leisure time, this demographic could shape spending trends across various sectors.
What the desk is arguing
The desk anticipates that the rise of older consumers will lead to shifts in investment strategies and consumer-focused financial products. As noted by Bank of America, the demographic shift will enhance the economic influence of the older consumer class, making it imperative for traders and investors to recalibrate their approaches to market segments influenced by this trend.
Supporting evidence from the commentary indicates that by 2025, those over 60 years of age will comprise a larger share of the population, a trend expected to continue through 2055. This demographic transition offers a dual opportunity for asset managers and retail-oriented firms to realign products and services with the evolving needs and preferences of this wealthier consumer segment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given our internal coverage, the consensus target for the EUR/USD pair is currently set at 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12 over the next several months. Notably, jpmorgan has a target of 1.10, while bofa has positioned themselves with a lower target at 1.04, suggesting a divergence in outlooks regarding the impact of aging demographics on currency valuation.
In light of this commentary, our desk's view aligns with the optimistic projection of jpmorgan regarding investor sentiment and demand stemming from the older consumer demographic. We are cautiously bearish against the more conservative metrics provided by bofa, sitting at the lower bound of the stated range.
How other firms see it
Among our aligned firms, jpmorgan forecasts an optimistic trajectory for currencies influenced by changing consumer expenditure patterns, while bofa represents the contrary perspective, anticipating lower valuations amid potentially mitigated spending from the older consumer base. The trends in consumer discretionary spending and healthcare sectors will be closely monitored as indicators of this demographic's influence.
Key economic indicators, including retail sales and consumer confidence indices, will be critical to watch, especially in relation to the overarching impacts of demographic changes on currency pairs such as USD/EUR and GBP/USD at significant economic decision points.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The share of the U.S. population over 60 is set to rise, enhancing older consumers' economic influence.
- 02Older consumers are expected to change consumer patterns, impacting sectors like retail and healthcare.
- 03Investment strategies must adapt to the evolving preferences of this demographic to capture market opportunities.
- 04Diverging targets among firms indicate differing views on the strength of consumer spending driven by older demographics.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the EUR/USD pair closely, especially as older consumers begin to influence economic sectors more significantly. A sustained rally above 1.075 could signal confidence in spending trends, while movements toward the lower end near 1.04 might indicate caution.
Risks to this view
A substantial shift in consumer spending trends or a significant economic downturn impacting this demographic could catalyze a reversal in market sentiment, especially if consumption rates fall below current expectations. Additionally, any adverse policy changes addressing aging populations could also dampen these increasingly positive forecasts.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Bank of America ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Entering the age of the older consumer As America ages, older consumers have more leisure time, significant wealth and growing economic influence. The older consumer is moving center stage. America's population has been aging for decades, but the shift has accelerated: the share aged over 60 increased by almost 10 percentage points (pp) between 1995 and 2025.
And the Census Bureau projects the share of the population over 60 will rise another 5pp by 2055, to stand at nearly 30% of the population. Click below to access our latest publication for a more in-depth look at these insights. You are receiving this email as a subscriber to Bank of America Institute analyses on the economy. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Read the publications, available through the link(s) above, for complete information including important disclosures.
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