FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
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We need to monitor for second-round effects on wages Latest ECB wage growth tracker points to stable wage growth ECB's Escriva said the central bank needs to closely monitor whether higher prices begin feeding into wages. The latest ECB wage tracker points to relatively stable an
The desk believes that the ECB's wage tracker data signals a stable wage growth outlook, which may influence the euro's trajectory against the dollar. Per the full note [source], the ECB wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth stabilizing at around 2.6% for 2026, with a slight easing from 3.8% in 2025. This stability in wages, coupled with the ECB's cautious approach to monetary policy, suggests a more measured path for the euro as inflation pressures moderate. Upcoming inflation data releases on June 2 will be critical in assessing the market's response to these wage dynamics.
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