ECB policymaker Wunsch says upside surprises in inflation would justify further tightening
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Full article here ECB's Wunsch said he would support another 25 bps hike if inflation data continues to come in stronger than expected, particularly after the recent rise in Eurozone services inflation. He said persistent upside surprises in inflation would justify further tighte
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The desk interprets Deutsche Bank's recent commentary as a signal that the ECB is navigating a precarious balance between rising inflation expectations and slowing growth. Per the full note [source], the ECB's decision to hold rates steady was expected, yet the accompanying data revealed a notable jump in one-year inflation expectations to 4.0%, the highest since 2023. This shift, combined with tightening credit conditions, suggests that the market is right to fully price in a rate hike by June. The desk sees this as a pivotal moment for the eurozone economy, where inflationary pressures could force the ECB's hand despite growth concerns.
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