EUR/USD stays rangebound ahead of ECB policy announcement as traders await Trump's decision on Iran
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain
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4 itemsEUR/USD stays rangebound as US-Iran tensions ease and traders await the US CPI report
EUR/USD extends the consolidation amid widely expected ECB hikes, US-Iran stalemate
Lead — The EUR/USD pair remains in a consolidation phase as traders await clearer signals from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Per the full note from Giuseppe Dellamotta, the US dollar has strengthened slightly amid geopolitical tensions and higher-than-expected inflation data, while the euro faces pressure despite anticipated ECB rate hikes. The market is pricing in an 87% probability of a June rate hike from the ECB, but the desk sees limited room for the euro to rally based solely on interest rate expectations. Upcoming US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.