FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the European Central Bank outlook moves the EUR bank consensus across 35 desks
View European Central Bank outlookFrom the original
European Central Bank: Rates on hold but tightening bias – Nordea FXStreet
The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% amid a backdrop of rising inflation and mixed economic signals, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward. Per the full note [source], the ECB's forward guidance is expected to remain non-committal, emphasizing a data-dependent stance. Market participants are particularly focused on the press conference for insights into the ECB's reaction function, especially given the recent increase in headline inflation driven by energy prices. The market is currently pricing in 80 basis points of tightening by year-end, with a high probability of a June rate hike, which may lead to disappointment if the ECB adopts a less hawkish tone than anticipated.