Eyes out for the Bank of Japan decision
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I wouldn't expect any drama from the Bank of Japan given that they hiked at the previous meeting. The market is pricing in nearly no chance of a move today but signals on the Sept meeting will be notable with a 25% chance of a hike priced in. Today's Tokyo CPI ran hot. This artic
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The desk anticipates a hawkish hold from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its upcoming meeting, following September's hike to 1.25%. The central bank's growth and inflation outlook will be pivotal, particularly if CPI forecasts for FY27 and FY28 exceed the 2% threshold, which could pave the way for further rate increases in 2027. Per the full note from ing-think, market pricing currently assigns an 80% chance of a 25bp hike in December, suggesting heightened sensitivity around the BoJ's communications this week, especially in light of arch-hawk Hajime Takata's potential dissent on voting for a back-to-back hike.
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