FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Federal Reserve outlook moves the USD bank consensus across 36 desks
View Federal Reserve outlookFrom the original
The FOMC is expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The consensus expects up to two dissenters to vote in favor of a rate hike at this meeting, likely Fed's Logan and/or Fed's Hammack. We won't get the Summary of Economic Projections
The Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady, despite dissent from three FOMC members, highlights ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy. Markets had anticipated a potential rate hike, pricing in a one-third chance of a 25bp increase; however, the Fed opted for caution ahead of further employment and inflation data, with current rates maintained at 3.5-3.75%. Per the full note [source], the implication is a more extended period of steady policy, projecting a likelihood of rates remaining unchanged into 2027. This decision has prompted slight softening in the dollar and shifts in the yield curve.