Goldman Sachs Gold Price Forecast: Near-Term Downside Risk But $5,400 Target Intact - Exchange Rates UK

What the desk is arguing

Goldman Sachs reiterates its bullish gold price forecast, targeting $5,400 per ounce by end-2026, driven by central bank buying and geopolitical demand. However, they flag near-term downside risks from a stronger US dollar and potential Fed hawkishness.

The desk argues that while gold has recently softened, structural demand from emerging-market central banks will continue to anchor prices higher. They reject the view that elevated rates will permanently cap gold, instead seeing pullbacks as buying opportunities.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our internal consensus gold forecast is $4,800 for Q4 2026, with a firm spread of $4,500-$5,200, making Goldman's $5,400 target a clear outlier on the bullish side. The bank's view aligns with the positive structural narrative but is more aggressive in magnitude.

Contrasting with Goldman, Barclays has a Dec-26 target of $4,700, while JPMorgan forecasts $5,000 for the same period. Morgan Stanley is less bullish at $4,500, citing lower long-term demand from central banks. A summary of firm targets:

• Barclays: $4,700 (Dec-26)
• JPMorgan: $5,000 (Dec-26)
• Morgan Stanley: $4,500 (Dec-26)

How other firms see it

Goldman Sachs stands alone as the most bullish, with other major banks taking a more cautious stance. For example, JPMorgan aligns with the structural demand story but sees a higher risk of near-term headwinds, setting a target 8% lower than Goldman. In contrast, Morgan Stanley** is explicitly contrarian, arguing that the central bank buying cycle is peaking, which could cap gold below $5,000.

Other firms like Barclays and Deutsche Bank are more aligned with our consensus, placing targets between $4,500 and $4,800. The divergence centers on how persistent central bank purchases will be and the trajectory of US real yields.