Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY upside, 160+, as Japan fiscal bets lift intervention risk - investingLive

What the desk is arguing

Goldman Sachs has adopted a bullish stance on USD/JPY, anticipating that the currency pair could push beyond the 160 mark. This projection is bolstered by Japan's fiscal strategies, which analysts believe may prompt increased intervention activities from the Bank of Japan, adding upward pressure on the yen.

The current spot price of USD/JPY stands at 157, suggesting that Goldman’s bullish sentiment contrasts sharply with consensus estimates. With differing views on Japan's fiscal trajectory and intervention likelihood, it appears the desk is disregarding the more tempered perspectives of many market participants who are forecasting less dramatic moves.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for USD/JPY is 154.5000 for March 2026, which is significantly lower than Goldman Sachs's aggressive target of above 160. The range across firms shows a wide divergence, with some expecting the pair to settle as low as 147.5 by December 2026.

Notably, key firms are targeting various levels as well. Specific targets include:

• JPMorgan: Dec-26 target of 164.0000
• Goldman: Dec-26 target of 148.0000
• Barclays: Dec-26 target of 149.0000

How other firms see it

Many firms have adopted a more conservative approach compared to Goldman Sachs's bullish outlook. For example, MorganStanley holds a Dec-26 target of just 140.0000, reflecting skepticism around the intervention dynamics that might push USD/JPY significantly higher.

A few more firms with more cautious views include:

• MUFJ with a Dec-26 target of 146.0000
• BofA aiming for a target of 147.0000
• Deutsche Bank forecasting at 143.0000

These targets illustrate a consensus that leans towards instability and moderate depreciation, contrasting sharply with the aggressive stance suggested by Goldman Sachs.