Goldman Sachs Dollar To Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bias Higher On Election Risks - Exchange Rates Org UK
At a Glance
Goldman Sachs flags upside risk for USD/JPY on Japanese election uncertainties, aligning with its own Dec26 target of 148 while the consensus sees 147.5. The desk's view is contrarian to JPMorgan's bullish yen outlook.
Key Takeaways
- 01Goldman Sachs sees near-term upside risk for USD/JPY due to Japanese election uncertainty, potentially delaying BOJ normalization.
- 02Goldman's Dec26 target of 148 is close to the consensus of 147.5, but its near-term bias diverges from the median path.
- 03JPMorgan stands out as the most bullish USD/JPY firm with a Dec26 target of 164, while Morgan Stanley is the most bearish at 140.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
Goldman Sachs sees the bias for USD/JPY as higher due to Japanese election risks, implying that political uncertainty could delay Bank of Japan normalization and keep the yen under pressure. This thesis runs counter to the consensus view that the yen will strengthen over the medium term.
The election risk premium could push USD/JPY temporarily above the current spot of 157, testing levels closer to 160 before any correction. Goldman's Dec26 target of 148 suggests eventual yen appreciation, but near-term upside risks dominate.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus target for USD/JPY at Dec26 is 147.5, with a wide firm spread from a low of 140 (Morgan Stanley) to a high of 164 (JPMorgan). Goldman's Dec26 target of 148 aligns closely with the median, but its near-term election-driven bias is more hawkish on USD/JPY than the consensus path.
Key firms with divergent Dec26 targets include:
- JPMorgan: 164.00 (bullish USD/JPY)
- Goldman Sachs: 148.00 (bearish USD/JPY)
- Morgan Stanley: 140.00 (very bearish USD/JPY)
How other firms see it
Goldman Sachs is aligned with the consensus trend towards yen strength by Dec26, but its near-term election risk view is more cautious. JPMorgan is the notable contrary firm, expecting USD/JPY to rise to 164 by Dec26, a full 16 figures above Goldman's target.
Other firms like Morgan Stanley (140) and Deutsche Bank (143) are even more bullish on the yen than Goldman, while ING (152) and Barclays (149) are closer to the median. The wide range reflects deep uncertainty over BOJ policy and fiscal direction.
Market Implications
USD/JPY could experience elevated volatility around the election period, with potential spikes above 160. Options markets may see increased demand for upside protection. If election risks fade, yen gains could resume, aligning with the central tendency of forecasts towards 147-148 by year-end.
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 159.60 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 149.00 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
From the original
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