RBA preview: Hawkish hold widely expected; traders attentive to potential dovish surprises
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged tomorrow at 4.35% following a series of soft economic data. The labour market has eased faster than expected as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, which is higher than RBA's 4.2% forecast. On the in
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4 itemsHeads up RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% Tuesday
Preview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decision
The desk anticipates the RBA will maintain its cash rate at 4.35%, aligning with market expectations and suggesting limited volatility in the AUD and rates markets. According to TD Securities, the crucial insights will arise from the RBA's accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, which may reflect a cautious outlook despite recent inflation data suggesting room for a pause. Market participants should note the potential for a modest shift in forecast language, with oil prices continuing to pose an upside risk to inflation projections. Per the full note [source], the subdued probability of a rate hike today is supported by OIS pricing that indicates negligible expectations from traders for any changes in the policy rate.