ICYMI: Bessent lists reasons Fed could skip a September hike despite Warsh remarks
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
From the original
Bessent's remarks landed after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut had pushed September hike odds toward 60 percent on CME's FedWatch tool. The dollar ticked lower following the interview, with Bessent's supply shock framing floated as a possible catalyst, even though the
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Bank of America's analysis, per the full note [source], argues that Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has effectively boxed him into a September rate hike, with only a pronounced softening in upcoming data able to justify a hold. The speech also provided a concrete framework for inflation monitoring—core PCE and the share of the basket above 3%—which could reduce market volatility around individual data prints. This view contrasts with Goldman Sachs, which still sees the Fed on hold. With the August jobs report and inflation data as the pivotal catalysts, the market is now pricing a near coin-flip for September.
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