Recap: Fed officials flag inflation risks in run-up to Warsh's Jackson Hole debut
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Thursday's remarks did little to resolve the market's core uncertainty heading into Friday, namely whether the Fed leans toward a September hike or continues to hold. Hammack's (and more here ) explicit call to act sits at odds with Schmid's reluctance to commit and Goolsbee's mo
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4 itemsBofA says Warsh's Jackson Hole speech raises pressure for September hike
Bank of America's analysis, per the full note [source], argues that Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has effectively boxed him into a September rate hike, with only a pronounced softening in upcoming data able to justify a hold. The speech also provided a concrete framework for inflation monitoring—core PCE and the share of the basket above 3%—which could reduce market volatility around individual data prints. This view contrasts with Goldman Sachs, which still sees the Fed on hold. With the August jobs report and inflation data as the pivotal catalysts, the market is now pricing a near coin-flip for September.
Preview: Warsh's silence on rates leaves Fed and markets guessing before Jackson Hole
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