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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
At a Glance
ING's Dmitry Dolgin argues the National Bank of Kazakhstan's second consecutive surprise cut—25bp to 16.75%—signals growing confidence in fiscal discipline despite sticky inflation. The decision, a close call per Governor Suleimenov, was tipped by fiscal clarity and quasi-fiscal restraint, not a benign inflation outlook (CPI 10.3% YoY, expectations rising to 13.4%). With no high-impact domestic data in the next 30 days, the focus shifts to the efficacy of fiscal consolidation and FX stability.
Key Takeaways
Full Analysis
ING frames the NBK's 25bp cut to 16.75% as a confidence-building move rooted in fiscal discipline, not inflation improvement. Per the full note , the decision was a close call between a hold and a modest cut, with Governor Suleimenov indicating fiscal clarity tipped the balance. The desk highlights that inflation remains elevated—headline CPI at 10.3% YoY and household expectations rising to 13.4%—so the easing is a bet that quasi-fiscal restraint and FX stability will anchor prices.
Supporting evidence includes the earlier 100bp surprise in June, suggesting a deliberate pivot. ING notes the cut's modest scale limits economic impact, making it largely symbolic. The counterfactual—a hold—would have been justified given sticky inflation, but the NBK chose to signal confidence in the fiscal trajectory.
With no per-firm forecasts available, no consensus view is provided.
No high-impact events are scheduled in the next 30 days for Kazakhstan, so near-term focus remains on monthly CPI prints and fiscal policy updates.
Market Implications
Watch USD/KZT for reaction to the cut; if FX stability cracks, NBK may pause. The spread between NBK rate and USD/KZT forward points will signal credibility of fiscal narrative.
From the original
Older quick take Quick take Published 11:46 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s central bank keeps surprising as fiscal clarity trumps inflation concerns The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut rates by 25bp to 16.75%, delivering a second consecutive surprise easing, though on a materially more
The decision by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) to cut the base rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% marks a notable shift but reflects cautious optimism regarding inflation dynamics. With the annual CPI easing to 9.8% in August and households' inflation expectations declining, the NBK acted sooner than anticipated. However, as per the full note from ING, the central bank explicitly cautioned against further cuts in light of rising external inflation pressures and a higher inflation forecast for 2027, revising it to 6.5-8.5% from 5.5-7.5%.
Lead — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan's decision to maintain its policy rate at 14.00% signals a cautious approach, with a potential for a modest rate cut in Q4 2026 as inflationary pressures ease. Per the full note from ing-think, the central bank's dovish tone highlights both domestic and external risks that could impact this outlook. This dovish hold is informed by recent inflation trends, with headline CPI reducing to 6.2% YoY in August from around 10% earlier in the year, suggesting a more stable inflation environment. However, external pressures, particularly from elevated commodity prices, continue to pose risks to ongoing price stability.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan's recent decision to maintain the policy rate at 14.00%, coupled with the removal of rate cut guidance, signals a more hawkish stance driven by rising inflationary pressures. Per the full note from ing-think, the central bank cites cost-push factors and robust domestic demand as primary reasons for this shift. Additionally, the removal of language indicating potential easing reflects a growing concern over heightened external risks, such as increasing commodity prices, that may keep inflation expectations elevated. Overall, this underscores the central bank's commitment to maintaining tighter monetary conditions in the near term, despite potential long-term rate cuts being on the table.
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