Macro Freestyle podcast – Is policy turning more interventionist?
At a Glance
The desk interprets Standard Chartered's analysis as suggesting a shift towards more interventionist policies, potentially influencing inflation and currency dynamics. As Eric Robertsen and Madhur Jha discuss, recent developments in U.S. policy, particularly from the Fed and Treasury, have implications for asset prices and currency valuations in the FX market. Per the full note, the evolving macro landscape may present new trading opportunities, especially considering the current positioning in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY pairs. Current consensus targets for EUR/USD are around 1.1700 for March 2026, highlighting a cautious but optimistic view as traders gauge global economic responses to policy shifts.
Key Takeaways
- 01Standard Chartered suggests a shift to more interventionist policies could impact global FX dynamics.
- 02Current EUR/USD target consensus is around 1.1700 for March 2026, signaling cautious optimism.
- 03Divergence exists among firms regarding GBP/USD targets, indicating differing market sentiments.
- 04Market volatility could increase as traders reassess positions ahead of potential policy shifts.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets the Standard Chartered podcast as a signal that global monetary policies may become increasingly interventionist, thereby impacting currency valuations and inflation rates significantly. According to Eric Robertsen, the U.S. policymaking landscape is evolving, which could open doors for currency traders to exploit new opportunities based on shifting macroeconomic fundamentals. Recent discussions suggest upcoming adjustments in Fed and Treasury policies could reshape dynamics across major currency pairs.
A significant point raised in the podcast is the current consensus among various firms, suggesting a median target for EUR/USD around 1.1700 over the next months. This reflects a broad expectation for a gradual appreciation in the euro against the dollar amid shifting economic policies and inflationary pressures.
Where it sits in our coverage
For the EUR/USD, our current consensus target is 1.1700, with the range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000, indicating a cautiously bullish sentiment. Notably, stanchart has set a target of 1.1400 for March 2026, aligning closely with other major forecasts such as morganstanley at 1.2000 and rbc at 1.1600 for the same period.
This perspective is somewhat conservative relative to the broader cross-firm consensus, where other institutions like morganstanley project higher valuations, positioning the desk's outlook slightly towards the lower end of the forecast range.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including rbc and hsbc, are aligned with the bullish outlook on GBP/USD with targets hovering around 1.36-1.38, which reflects a supportive stance on the currency in light of expected policy shifts. Conversely, firms like nomura and barclays maintain a more cautious stance on GBP/USD, projecting targets below 1.32, indicating divergence in market sentiment.
The potential crossover effects on USD/JPY should also be monitored, as shifts in U.S. policy directly impact dollar dynamics and could significantly influence Japanese yen valuations amidst ongoing Bank of Japan strategies.
Market Implications
Traders should watch for USD performance as U.S. policy evolutions unfold, particularly in the upcoming reports from Federal Reserve meetings. A break above 1.1700 in EUR/USD could signal a shift in market sentiment, while close attention to GDP and inflation data will reveal how these developments square with existing expectations.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bearish | 1.1500 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
From the original
Standard Chartered’s Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research and Chief Strategist, and Madhur Jha, Head of Thematic Research, examine how the latest developments in Fed, US Treasury and tariff policy are impacting global inflation, growth and asset prices – and where opportunitie
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