Markets in 2026: Will gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar make history again? — These are how leading institutions think - Mitrade

What the desk is arguing

The desk argues that gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar will each have significant historical importance by 2026, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces. Per the full note source, institutions are increasingly assessing these assets as critical components of their portfolios amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Supporting this view, recent trends indicate that institutional investment in Bitcoin has surged, with a reported increase of 40% in institutional holdings over the past year. Additionally, gold has seen a resurgence in demand, particularly as central banks globally have increased their gold reserves by approximately 20% since 2020.

The alternative read would suggest that the U.S. dollar could maintain its dominance without significant competition from cryptocurrencies or gold, particularly if inflationary pressures subside sooner than expected, leading to a stronger dollar narrative.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firms include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)

This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger dollar driven by continued economic recovery, while bofa presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting potential downside risks to the dollar's strength.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their bullish outlook on the dollar, anticipating that its safe-haven status will prevail. Conversely, bofa and gs express skepticism, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the dollar's position due to rising inflation and alternative asset classes.

Watch the EUR/USD trajectory, as it often reflects shifts in the ECB's monetary policy, which could intersect with the U.S. dollar's performance. Additionally, the dynamics of the BTC/USD pair will be crucial to monitor as institutional adoption continues to evolve.

What the calendar says

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