FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Federal Reserve outlook moves the USD bank consensus across 35 desks
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Daly's full endorsement of the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, combined with her cautious but data dependent framing ahead of September, suggests markets should not read her earlier comments on fading tariff effects and a potential Middle East resolution as signalling immine
The desk posits that while Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks today are likely to maintain the prevailing dovish tone established at the most recent FOMC meeting, hints at a more cautious approach toward rate cuts could emerge. Per the full note [source], the Fed's direction seems influenced by comments from Fed Governor Mirren, who advocates for a two-percentage-point reduction in rates, a position that raises questions amid the current inflationary trends in durable goods and core items. Given the current market expectations, the muted market response to global events—like the anticipated discussions between President Millet of Argentina and President Trump—hints at a broader market reluctance to shift positioning significantly ahead of Powell's address and until clearer data emerges on inflation and rates.