Morgan Stanley sees US dollar weakening as Fed holds rates By Investing.com - Investing.com India

Morgan Stanley sees USD/CNY lower if China exports stay strong - Investing.com India

Morgan Stanley: Dollar To Lose 9% By Mid-2026, EUR/USD Forecast 1.25 - Exchange Rates UK

The desk interprets Morgan Stanley's call as a significant depreciation forecast for the U.S. dollar, projecting a 9% decline by mid-2026, which aligns with a EUR/USD target of 1.25. This outlook suggests increasing bearish sentiment on the dollar amid potential shifts in monetary policy dynamics. Per the full note, the expected depreciation of the dollar is attributed to various macroeconomic factors, which could impact investor sentiment and positioning. With current spot levels for EUR/USD at 1.1500, this forecast suggests substantial upside potential, moving against a backdrop of diverging monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Is US dollar weakness inevitable?

The desk posits that the trajectory of the US dollar is increasingly vulnerable to structural weakness, driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and evolving global trade dynamics. Per the full note from Standard Chartered, the interplay of these factors suggests a shift in market sentiment that could favor emerging market currencies over the dollar. Recent discussions around trade rulings and yield curve shifts further underscore this narrative. As we approach key economic indicators, the dollar's resilience will be tested against these emerging trends.

Morgan Stanley sees USD/CNY lower if China exports stay strong - Investing.com