Norges Bank preview: Another hike in store, not now but later - Nordea Corporate
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Norges Bank preview: Another hike in store, not now but later Nordea Corporate
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4 itemsNorges Bank to hike in May and keep the door open for more
The desk anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike from Norges Bank on May 7, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and recent developments in the oil market. Per the full note from ing-think, this hike is viewed as necessary to address broad-based inflation concerns, and a delay would merely push the decision to June. The desk expects this move to trigger another rally in the Norwegian krone (NOK), although the longevity of this rally will be contingent on global risk sentiment remaining robust. With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next month, the focus will remain squarely on Norges Bank's actions and statements.
Prospect of August hike in Norway can help the krone
The desk believes that the Norwegian krone (NOK) is poised for appreciation ahead of the Norges Bank's anticipated 25 basis point hike in August, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full note from ING, the central bank's hawkish tone following its recent policy meeting suggests a proactive approach to combating inflation, with projections indicating a rate of 4.32% by Q3 2023 and 4.55% by Q4 2023. This hike aligns with a broader trend among global central banks, where front-loading rate increases is becoming the norm. Currently, NOK is expected to gain particularly against high-beta currencies, although external factors will continue to play a significant role throughout the summer market.
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