One more ECB hike seen in September before rates plateau through 2027
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The ECB's first rate increase since 2023 was largely anticipated, but the upward revision to inflation forecasts and the explicit signal of a further September hike removes any residual dovish interpretation of the decision. European sovereign spreads and rate-sensitive sectors f
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Rates Spark: Bracing for a hawkish ECB
The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised for a 25 basis point rate hike today, supported by a hawkish narrative that suggests limited potential for additional aggressive moves. Per the full note from ing-think, expectations are tempered as the market already prices in three hikes, which may represent an overextension of hawkish sentiment, given that inflation pressures have not yet shown second-round effects. The recent ECB commentary implies that while a hawkish tone will be maintained, any surprises beyond today's hike are off the table unless inflation data signals otherwise.