FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Federal Reserve outlook moves the USD bank consensus across 36 desks
View Federal Reserve outlookFrom the original
Schmid's comments add to a growing chorus of Fed officials signalling openness to further tightening, even though he lacks a vote on the FOMC this year, reinforcing market expectations that the path of least resistance for policy is higher rather than lower. His characterisation
Per the full note [source], the Fed minutes revealed a surprisingly broad range of views, including explicit mention of rate hikes, which markets had not priced. The desk highlights that this hawkish tilt reduces the probability of near-term cuts, but the overarching caveat—dependent on inflation persistence—preserves optionality. With two-year yields edging higher and the labour market deemed stable by most members, the near-term path is data-dependent rather than directionally clear.