Spain’s rental dilemma: protecting tenants won’t fix the housing shortage
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https://think.ing.com/articles/spains-rental-dilemma-protecting-tenants-wont-fix-the-shortage/
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4 itemsSpain’s rental dilemma: protecting tenants won’t fix the housing shortage
Spain's housing crisis has escalated from a chronic supply problem to the immediate trigger for a snap general election on 29 November, after parliament rejected two emergency housing decrees on 2 October and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called early polls three days later — with the flashpoint being the eviction of an 87-year-old tenant in Madrid. Per the full note from ING's Pablo Muylle, the binding constraint is structural, not regulatory: more than two new households have been formed for every home completed since 2021, meaning rent controls can shield sitting tenants but cannot clear the underlying deficit. The rejected package bundled stronger eviction protection, limits on rent increases, and tighter rules on temporary and room rentals; a second decree would have made five- to seven-year lease renewals the default with roughly a year's rent in compensation where landlords decline to renew. For FX, the read-through is second-order but non-zero — a hung or fragmented outcome risks a reform vacuum that keeps Spanish growth and peripheral spread dynamics soft, while any coalition credible on supply expansion would be a mild euro-positive. No tracked G10 or EM pair carries our house target here, so positioning should be driven off Spanish politics via EUR crosses and peripheral spreads rather than a standalone trade expression.
Airbnb only part of Belgium’s housing affordability problem
The desk underscores the multifaceted nature of housing affordability issues in Belgium, emphasizing that while short-term rental platforms like Airbnb do contribute to supply constraints, they are not the sole factor. Per the full note from ING, short-term rentals have removed approximately 3,000 homes from the Brussels market alone, exacerbating the challenges posed by rising interest rates and increasing house prices. With the homeownership rate declining from 72.4% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025, the desk highlights a pressing need for a comprehensive response to a market under duress. Without any imminent high-impact calendar events, these factors may have longer-term implications on economic stability and currency dynamics in the region.