The bond market is voting against Warsh. Bond yields hit the highest since 2007
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Ten year Treasury yields are up 7 bps so far in Asia and 30s are up 9 bps. The latter just hit a fresh cycle high at 5.24%. That's the highest since 2007 and it looks like a major break could be taking place. We have been testing the 5.20% level since October 2023 when inflation
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4 itemsStocks fall while dollar, bond yields rise as Warsh prompts rate hike bets - Reuters
Rates Spark: Room for Warsh to shift the narrative
As markets adjust to the complex interplay between U.S. rate hike probabilities and inflation expectations, Chair Warsh's testimony could serve as a pivot point for sentiment. Per the full note [source], there is a marked increase in the rate hike discount compared to a stabilization of inflation expectations, setting the stage for potential shifts in yield curves. Currently, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 4.6%, with heightened geopolitical tensions potentially influencing real yields and providing a backdrop for Warsh's remarks. The consensus target for EUR/USD remains at 1.1750 for December 2026, within a span indicating a relatively stable expectation amid this volatility.
USD/JPY breaks above 155 as Treasury yields hit highest since 2007
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