Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Shocked but not awed
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As the U.S.-Iran War enters week four, we assess the impacts to financial markets and the risk of escalation. We also assess the outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting and what it suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, a look at portfolio positioning recommendation
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4 itemsTop of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Shocked but not awed
Per the full note UBS-on-Air, the CIO office sees the Fed holding steady amid sticky inflation and a resilient economy, with the median dot still pointing to one cut in 2027. The Iran conflict risk premium is fading, but the selloff in risk assets has been contained so far. The desk argues that the next central bank move could be a hike rather than a cut, challenging consensus dovish expectations. With no high-impact calendar events in the near term, the focus is on whether oil prices derail the disinflation narrative.