On the move: Renovation over relocation?
The desk interprets Bank of America's latest report as highlighting a noteworthy trend: while U.S. mobility is waning, home-related spending is maintaining its strength, largely propelled by a surge in renovations rather than relocations. Per the full note, this stagnation in housing turnover has been observed across all demographics, particularly impacting lower-income households and Millennials. Such insights reflect the changing dynamics in the housing market, suggesting a crucial pivot towards enhancing existing homes amidst declining mobility. This environment could have spillover effects on currency movements, especially in pairs sensitive to U.S. economic data.
What the desk is arguing
The desk highlights a critical observation from the Bank of America report: U.S. residents are increasingly choosing to renovate their existing homes instead of moving to new locations. This trend is attributed to a broader slowdown in mobility across all income groups and demographics, with Millennials and lower-income groups experiencing the steepest declines in mobility.
Supporting this assertion, Bank of America indicates that despite moving less, Americans' home-related expenditures are robust, underscoring a shift in spending behavior. This shift suggests that financial resources may be refocused on property improvements rather than transactions, thereby maintaining resilience in the sector.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for the USD/EUR pair remains at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12 as articulated by various firms. Specific targets are outlined as follows: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
The desk's interpretation aligns closely with jpmorgan, positioning slightly higher than bofa, which exhibits a more conservative outlook based on current housing trends.
How other firms see it
Other firms like goldmansachs and citigroup seem to support the angle that spending on home improvements could stimulate the economy, while deutschebank holds a contrary position, suggesting risks associated with over-leveraging in housing.
Current economic indicators, particularly home renovation expenditures and housing starts, align with this discussion as they can realistically impact currency pairs such as EUR/USD, signaling the broader economic sentiment towards U.S. consumer behavior as reflected in trends from both the housing market and inflation expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01U.S. mobility is declining, impacting lower-income households and Millennials significantly.
- 02Home-related spending is thriving, primarily due to a shift towards renovations rather than relocations.
- 03This shift suggests a potential stabilization in home improvement markets despite a downturn in moving.
- 04The ongoing trends may influence currency movements, especially those tied to U.S. economic performance.
Market implications
Traders should watch for developments in home renovation expenditures as they could indicate broader consumer sentiment. The upcoming release of housing market data may provide further insights into economic robustness, possibly influencing positions in USD-related pairs.
Risks to this view
A sudden increase in mobility rates or a significant drop in home renovation spending could invalidate the current bullish sentiment on home-related expenditures, forcing a reassessment of associated currency pair projections.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Bank of America ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ On the move: Renovation over relocation? Moving is slowing across the US, but home-related spending remains resilient thanks to renters and renovations. Americans are moving less, and the slowdown is broad-based, according to Bank of America account data.
Mobility continued to decline in Q2 2026 across income groups, generations and move types, with lower-income households and Millennials seeing the sharpest pullbacks. Click below to access our latest publication for a more in-depth look at these insights. You are receiving this email as a subscriber to Bank of America Institute analyses on the economy. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Read the publications, available through the link(s) above, for complete information including important disclosures.
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