CEE & CCA week ahead: Kazakhstan rate decision and Polish GDP
The upcoming week is set to provide critical economic data from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly focusing on Poland's GDP and inflation figures alongside Kazakhstan's monetary policy decision. Per the full note source, the forecast for Kazakhstan suggests a cautious 25 basis point cut to 16.50%, reflecting ongoing economic pressures in the region. In Poland, the anticipated GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2 is supported by strong investment figures but tempered by weakening private consumption, which is forecasted to grow at just 3.0%. The combination of these insights highlights a divergence in economic momentum across these economies, with distinct implications for regional currencies.
What the desk is arguing
The FX desk anticipates that both the rate decision from Kazakhstan and the economic data from Poland will have significant implications for regional currency dynamics. According to the source, the central bank in Kazakhstan is expected to tread carefully with a modest rate cut while Poland's investment boost contrasts with its slowing consumption metrics, which could impact the PLN's positioning against stronger currencies such as the EUR.
In Poland, while fixed investment is projected to rise to 8.5% YoY, private consumption being pegged lower at 3.0% YoY suggests that economic growth is not as robust as it might initially appear. This dual narrative presents a complex backdrop for currency traders as they navigate shifting growth rates and inflation dynamics in these markets.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the PLN against the EUR stands at 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Specific firms like jpmorgan are aligned with this target, pegging the rate at 1.10 for a March 2026 tenor, while bofa has a contrary stance, expecting it lower at 1.04.
The desk's analysis suggests that our stance is at the upper bound of the spread, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the bearish sentiment expressed by some firms.
How other firms see it
There appears to be a consensus among firms such as jpmorgan and hsbc, which anticipate stable or appreciating trends for the PLN in the medium term based on economic recovery signals. Conversely, bofa holds a more pessimistic outlook, likely influenced by concerns over decreasing consumption and potential central bank hesitancy in rate adjustments.
In the broader context, movement in EUR/USD is likely to mirror shifts in CEE dynamics, particularly following these economic data releases.
What the calendar says
With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next 30 days, traders will need to focus on the data releases from Poland and the rate decision from Kazakhstan next week as significant indicators to guide their positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Kazakhstan expected to cut rates by 25bps to 16.50% as economic pressures mount.
- 02Poland's Q2 GDP projected at 3.8%, show strong investment but weak consumption growth.
- 03The divergence in economic indicators could influence currency strategies significantly.
- 04Market sentiment is mixed, with some firms leaning towards a stronger PLN outlook.
Market implications
Watch for significant movements around Kazakhstan's rate decision and Poland's GDP data release. A rate cut could pressure KZT while PLN may react to shifts in investment trends versus consumption.
Risks to this view
A failure of the expected rate cut in Kazakhstan or a larger-than-expected slowdown in Poland's consumption could shift sentiment rapidly. Any significant changes in EU growth outlook or Fed policies could also impact regional currencies.
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Kazakhstan rate decision and Polish GDP Published 11:20 Hungary Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland will release second-quarter GDP and August inflation data next week, while Hungary and Turkey publish key growth figures and Kazakhstan delivers its latest rate decision Adam Antoniak , Peter Virovacz , Muhammet Mercan and Dmitry Dolgin We expect Kazakhstan to cut its base rate by a cautious 25bp to 16.50% on 4 September Poland: Investment expected to support second-quarter growth We expect the flash estimate of Poland’s 2Q26 GDP to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY on 31 August. Statistics Poland will also publish a composition of economic growth. We estimate that private consumption growth eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.3% YoY in 1Q26 as higher fuel prices and further slowdown in wage growth put pressure on purchasing power.
At the same time, fixed investment growth increased to 8.5% YoY from a disappointing 2.4% YoY in the previous quarter. Projects financed by the EU funds (including RRF) accelerated, and data on investment outlays of large companies in 1H26 point to strong investment activity in 2Q26. Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July.
We estimate that core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1% YoY and the slightly higher contribution from fuel prices to annual CPI was probably almost fully cancelled out by the negative impact of food deflation that likely deepened. Hungary: GDP details to shed light on second-quarter disappointment The Statistical Office will release further details on second-quarter economic activity, with final 2Q26 GDP data due on 1 September. Following a strong first quarter, expectations were for similarly robust growth in the second quarter.
The estimate data was disappointing, and we will now find out why. We expect agriculture and construction to be major drags on growth. Services will be shown as the main driver, with a positive contribution from industry as well.
In terms of final use, consumption remains king, but we anticipate a significant negative impact from investment activity – potentially the most important surprise factor. The first hard data regarding the third quarter will be released on 4 September. Following the disappointing retail performance in June, we are expecting a rebound.
This will be partly due to the effect of the FIFA World Cup which boosted both food and non-food retail. With fuel prices dropping in the first half of the month and expectations of future price increases, fuel sales may have increased as well. Overall, there is some potential for an upside surprise in the July retail sales figures.
Turkey: GDP and inflation releases to provide fresh read on activity August CPI inflation is released on 3 September and will have likely risen by 1.6% MoM, translating into 31.2% YoY (vs 31.8% a month ago), driven by tobacco price hikes in addition to higher motoring prices. Regarding the 2Q GDP next Monday, we expect year-on-year growth at 2.7% with a supportive industry despite relatively sluggish performance in services and construction. While the early indicators implied visible softening in 2Q26 domestic demand, we currently see the whole year GDP growth at 3.0% with geopolitical tensions remaining as the key downside risk.
CIS: Kazakhstan rate cut hinges on inflation slowdown We expect Kazakhstan to cut its base rate by a cautious 25bp to 16.50% on Friday 4 September, provided August CPI, due on 31 August, falls into single digits from 10.2% YoY in July. The tenge’s stronger-than-expected performance throughout the summer has made us slightly more dovish. However, currency strength remains the only disinflationary factor, while other cost pressures and demand continue to support inflation.
The cut could therefore be postponed (a less likely, but still probable case) or accompanied by more cautious guidance. Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING "> Source: Refinitiv, ING CEE & CCA week ahead Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Adam has about 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research. He has worked for leading financial institutions in Poland (Bank Pekao, Bank BPH), and members of international financial groups… Peter Virovacz Chief Economist, Hungary Peter Virovacz is a Chief Economist in Hungary, joining ING in 2016. Prior to that, he has worked at Szazadveg Economic Research Institute and the Fiscal Council of Hungary.
Peter studied at the… Muhammet Mercan Chief Economist, Turkey Muhammet Mercan is Chief Economist at ING, Turkey. Previously, he was an economist at Yapi Kredi and HSBC Securities. He is a part-time lecturer at Bilgi University and holds a PhD degree in… Dmitry Dolgin Chief Economist, CIS Dmitry is a Chief Economist covering Russia and CIS countries.
He joined ING in 2018 and has a decade of experience in macroeconomics and FX strategy with Alfa-Bank and Gazprombank. Dmitry… In this article Poland: Investment expected to support second-quarter growth Hungary: GDP details to shed light on second-quarter disappointment Turkey: GDP and inflation releases to provide fresh read on activity CIS: Kazakhstan rate cut hinges on inflation slowdown
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