UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A lesson in why data are not dependable'
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US Michigan consumer sentiment is due, including the inflation expectations reading. Is this useful information? It is not. The data will be distorted by frequency bias (there is more to life than food and fuel for the family fleet of SUVs, but that is pretty much all US househol
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of price expectations'
The desk views the Michigan consumer sentiment data as politically powerful despite its weak economic signal, with a focus on the emotional connection consumers have to frequent purchases like food and fuel. Per the full note from UBS, Paul Donovan suggests that rather than raw inflation figures, voters are likely to retain a 'fair price' threshold that significantly affects sentiment. This underscores the importance of tracking gasoline prices closely, particularly relative to the recalled fair price of around $2.50, as fluctuations here can spell political implications for administration approval ratings and broader market sentiment.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politicization of inflation'
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The global consumer'
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